One Down and Five to Go in Conservative Leadership Race
The race to become the next leader of the Conservative Party is well underway. Former cabinet minister Priti Patel was knocked out of the Conservative leadership contest in the first round of voting. Five hopefuls remain in contention: Robert Jenrick, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat and Mel Stride.
A great speaker and topping the polls, what’s not to like about Kemi Badenoch at 15/8 in the Conservative leadership race? ©Getty
Jenrick, who served in the Cabinet as Minister of State for Immigration between October 2022 and December 2023, topped the poll in the first round of voting. The The UK’s gambling sites took note and immediately trimmed the 42-year-olds’ odds from 13/8 to 6/5. Kemi Badenoch’s odds lengthened from 13/8 to 15/8.
Despite the rapid price changes, the race to lead the official opposition party is a slow burner. The result of the official ballot and declaration of the Tory Party’s new leader will not be made until November 2nd. Join us as we explain the voting process, look at the candidates, and consider the best bet.
How Will the Winner Be Decided?
In the final week of July, potential candidates had to gather the support of ten fellow Conservative MPs to qualify for the first ballot. This nomination period delivered a field of six, and the first vote took place on September 4th when Priti Patel – 33/1 to ultimately get the top job – finished bottom of the pile.
This vote, and a second that will take place on September 10th when the candidate with the least votes is eliminated, will reduce the field to four. Both ballots are only open to Conservative MPs, of which the latest general election delivered just 121. Of these, there are 92 men and 29 women. Round one of voting produced the following results.
| Candidates | Votes |
|---|---|
| Robert Jenrick | 28 votes |
| Kemi Badenoch | 22 votes |
| James Cleverly | 21 votes |
| Tom Tugendhat | 17 votes |
| Mel Stride | 16 votes |
| Priti Patel | 14 votes |
The Conservative Party Conference takes place between September 29th and October 2nd, where each of the four remaining leadership hopefuls will address party members. Their speeches must hit the spot as MPs will vote again on October 2nd and October 10th when the candidates are reduced to three and then two.
Who Will the Tory Massive Put Their Trust In?
At this juncture, the Conservative Party will pass the selection process to its members, and each can vote via an online ballot that is open between October 10th and October 31st. The timeframe should give candidates the opportunity to win over supporters. However, historically, members have preferred to cast their votes almost immediately. The result will be made public on November 2nd.
Over two years have passed since Liz Truss won the last heads-up battle for Tory Party leadership and justified her 2/5 odds. At the time, the Conservative Party were in power, and she prevailed ahead of Rishi Sunak, who had topped the MP-exclusive voting when three candidates remained. Her share of the 141,725 votes cast (from the 172,437 eligible members) was 57 percent.
Truss’s tenure was nothing short of disastrous and lasted less than 50 days. How will the Conservative membership view its 2022 ‘bad choice’, and will it affect its decision-making process in 2024?
Favourites Jenrick and Badenoch are both in their 40s, as were Truss and Sunak when they came to power. Aged 62, Mel Stride is the oldest candidate and, if successful, the former leader of the House of Commons and Work and Pensions Secretary will become the oldest ever elected Conservative Party leader. UK betting sites odds suggest that it is unlikely to happen.
| Candidates | Odds |
|---|---|
| Robert Jenrick | 6/5 |
| Kemi Badenoch | 15/8 |
| James Cleverly | 6/1 |
| Tom Tugendhat | 12/1 |
| Mel Stride | 40/1 |
Could It Be Won in Birmingham?
Much now depends on where the 14 MPs who voted for Priti Patel will place their ballot. Number crunchers and bookmakers agree it is unlikely Jenrick, Badenoch and Cleverley will not take to the party conference stage as live candidates. Tugendhat, former Minister of State for Security, will likely join them.
The BBC has reported that no leader’s speech is planned for the Tory conference in Birmingham. This makes potential leaders’ presentations even more important and may prove decisive. Since Labour took power on July 5th, no speech has been better received than Kemi Badenoch’s Commons address 14 days later.
In 13 relentless minutes, Badenoch used the time to tear apart the new Deputy Prime Minister, Angela Rayner, her politics, her targets, and her party. A series of punchy and funny put-downs saw the Labour number two leave the chamber with her tail firmly between her legs.
And Badenoch, the former Business and International Trade Secretary, did not end there. As the Daily Express put it, “She also poured salt on Labour’s wounds after many of Ms Rayner’s MP colleagues in opposition had been shafted by Sir Keir in not being made ministers after the election.”
Why Is Badenoch the Best Bet?
When it comes to addressing the public, Badenoch would win a rap-style face-off against her rivals by a wide margin. But it is not simply her prowess before an audience that makes the MP for North West Essex and mother of three our suggested bet at the industry top price of 7/4 offered by BetVictor.
The website Conservative Home, which describes itself as “Britain’s leading independent conservative news and analysis site”, has conducted three polls, all showing Badenoch as the clear choice of Conservative Party members.
Likewise, a 6-15 August YouGov survey of 910 Conservative members showed Kemi Badenoch was the frontrunner and most likely winner – despite 19 percent of those surveyed describing themselves as ‘undecided’.
Tellingly, when those surveyed were asked: “Suppose the following two candidates made it to the party members’ stage of the contest, which of them would you personally vote for to lead the Conservative Party?” They chose Badenoch over Jenrick by 48 percent to 33 percent.
