Can Truss the U-Turn Queen Complete a Year in Power?
Liz Truss is almost six weeks into her role as British Prime Minister. Her short tenure has been calamitous. There has been no honeymoon period, and bookmakers are already speculating her position as the British premier will be short-lived.
Prime Minister Liz Truss delivered her keynote speech at the Conservative Party Conference in early October. ‘Getting Britain Moving’ was the message. It is moving but in the wrong direction? ©GettyImages
The likelihood of Truss outlasting previous female Prime Ministers in power must be considered remote. Theresa May had three years and 12 days at the helm. Margaret ‘the Iron Lady’ Thatcher led Her Majesty’s government for 11 years and 209 days.
Following a raft of rescinded policy decisions, the 47-year-old is quickly becoming known as the ‘Queen of U-Turns’. Dominic Cummings, the former adviser to Boris Johnson, had previously given her the fitting moniker ‘the Human Hand Grenade’. On Friday she pulled the pin on her chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng.
Buckle up for a Wild Ride
The latest screeching U-turn came on Tuesday night when it was announced that renewable power companies will have their revenues capped. It was something Truss stated she was against during her first Prime Minister’s Questions session in the House of Commons.
A wild first month for Liz Truss’s government had already seen at least £300 billion wiped from the combined value of the nation’s stock and bond markets. Major tax cuts that led to the Bank of England raising interest rates to their highest levels in 14 years have been blamed.
The Bank of England also launched a £65 billion intervention to keep pension funds afloat. As a result, the Pound has lost five percent of its value against the Dollar. Against the Euro, one Pound now buys €1.13 – it had been worth €1.19 in July.
Will Truss Dig In or U-Turn?
This week a story in the Guardian indicated – with the prospect of an additional 450,000 British people being forced into poverty – Truss could be about to perform her biggest U-turn to date. She may change her plans to uprate welfare benefits in line with earnings rather than inflation.
“Fresh threats of moves to oust Truss if she digs in were also being discussed by MPs over the weekend, while senior Tories, including former chancellor George Osborne, warned the Conservatives ran the risk of a wipeout at the next election for embarking on a political experiment,”– wrote Aubrey Allegretti and Patrick Butler.
This uncertainty is not only affecting financial markets. The latest YouGov/Times vote intention poll shows the public is ready to install the Labour Party in power. The Keir Starmer-led reds earned votes from 54 percent of the 1,712 adults polled.
The Conservatives took just 21 percent of the current vote intention. Labour’s 33-point advantage is the highest figure the party has ever recorded in any published poll since the late 1990s.
Starmer a Stormer in the Latest Polls
Betting markets have acted as quickly as the Bank of England and opinion polls. They have collapsed. 40/1 a month ago, Liz Truss is now just 11/2 to exit her role by the end of 2022. The best online betting sites also quote her at 4/7 to be gone sometime during 2023.
A standout amongst the British political betting markets is the prices on the year of the next election. Unibet sportsbook has 2023 quoted on 4/1. A 2024 election, long after Truss is expected to have departed, is 1/6.
Since 1924, only one Prime Minister has been in power for less than one year. That distinction belongs to Alec Douglas-Home – ironically a Tory – who was in power for 364 days. It looks like his record could be lowered.
Elsewhere, the odds of Keir Starmer becoming the Prime Minister after the next General Election was even money the day Truss started the job. On Tuesday, William Hill cut that price to 4/11. Labour taking the most seats at the next election is also quoted on 4/11. A Labour majority is 5/6.
