Record-Setting October for Virginia Sports Betting Amid Tough Odds
A 21% year-over-year surge in Virginia’s October sports betting handle leads to a record month with $696.1 million wagered. However, hold numbers of just 7.04% show that Virginia sports bettors, much like sports gamblers nationwide, also had an excellent month.
Virginia sets sports betting record fueled by NFL, college football. © Anders Krøgh Jørgensen, Unsplash
Record-Setting October for Virginia Sports Betting Amid Declining Hold
NFL football kicked off in September, but October was the first full month of wagering. This, combined with the return of college football, usually leaves October as one of the stronger months of the calendar year for sports books, and this holds especially true for Virginia.
While handle was up only 11.9% from September’s $622 million, which included football, it was up more than 61% from August’s $416.6, which did not. This shows the power of college and professional football in attracting bettors’ interest.
Virginia’s prior best month for wagers was in January this year, when the state booked $652.9 million.
Despite Record Handle, Virginia Sports Books See Huge Decline in Revenue
However, the Adjusted Gross Revenue, or the amount that Virginia’s twelve online sports books and three retail operators actually won, plummeted. October’s win of $49 million was down 25.6% from September when the state’s sportsbooks brought home $65.9 million.
The hold number, or the percentage of the handle that the books kept, declined to 7.04%. Comparing that number to a more average month like last October when their handle was 11.2%, or even this September’s 11.5%, shows just how badly bettors beat up on the lines Virginia sportsbooks posted.
Some of this was due to the Washington Commanders covering the spread in their three wins in October. And in their 30 to 23 loss to the Ravens, they pushed a +7 line. While strictly speaking, the Commander’s home stadium is in Maryland, their close proximity to Virginia makes them a home crowd favorite for many Virginians.
The recent passage of a Federal bill may see the team return to their old home at the site of the RFK stadium in the District of Columbia, though in a new arena.
But the broader trend across the country in October’s sports betting numbers was much the same. Books in almost every state where sports betting is legal saw revenue slashed by results that saw the favorites cover the spread, which impacted everything from straight bets to props to teasers. Michigan sportsbooks reported a hold of only 5.5%, and the national average hovered in the 7% to 8% region.
The week before last was not good, but not as bad as two weeks ago… And so when — what was it, every favorite, but one that week, that’s a tough set of outcomes. Yeah, so October is not going to look great for anybody relative to what they were expecting, – Thomas Reeg, CEO Caesars Entertainment, Caesars Q3 Earnings Call
Results were so bad that DraftKings, Caesars, and many other publicly traded sportsbook operators were forced to discuss the results in third-quarter earnings calls. But November seems to be trending a little better, and most are sounding cautiously optimistic about the November numbers.
Looking Ahead
Virginia’s record handle in October shows the growing enthusiasm for sports betting, even as sportsbooks nationwide struggled with hold numbers for most of the month.
With November’s five full weekends of college games, plus a Black Friday NFL Game and several more on Thanksgiving proper, as well as the start of college basketball, sportsbooks are hoping for even higher gross wager numbers as they head into the middle of the fourth quarter.
Virginia has broadly mirrored nationwide numbers for 2024, which shows both the opportunities that are out there to grow the business but also the extreme volatility that can creep in when things don’t go as planned.
The last two months of the year will show whether the industry had a bad month and is poised to post record revenue numbers to go alongside record handle or if sportsbooks need to begin to adjust to a new normal as bettors find their stride.
