March Madness Betting to Fall by 1.5% in 2025, Says Industry Expert
Industry watchdog H2 Gambling Capital forecasts a slower March Madness based on wagers placed and total handle, citing recent dips in sports betting in the US market.
March Madness to draw 169 million bets with a drop of 1.5%.
Key Facts:
- March Madness attracts the most total bets of any sporting event in the United States
- Citing a recent drop in sports betting activity in the US, H2 forecasts a 1.5% drop in total handle for March Madness in 2025
- Nearly $3 billion is predicted to be wagered on the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments combined
Close to $3 billion will be wagered on March Madness this year, but that figure will fall slightly below the mark recorded in 2024, according to H2 Gambling Capital in an analysis released prior to the men’s and women’s college basketball tournaments.
The third and fourth rounds of the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments will be contested this weekend in what has become the most wagered-on event in American sports. However, H2 anticipates that betting activity will come in lower than it was in 2024.
Sluggish sports betting numbers in January may have led to H2’s prediction for a slowing in March Madness betting. Many states showed a slight dip in total handle for January, when the biggest events are the NFL and college football playoffs.
Data is still coming in from the most recent Super Bowl, but industry insiders believe it will set records for that event which crowns the champion of the National Football League. Some experts believe as much as $1.3 billion was wagered on the big game, which took place in early February.
While the Super Bowl remains the single-most heavily bet game in the country, college and professional basketball accounts for more than one-third of the nation’s total sports betting handle, according to data from H2 Gambling Capital.
Industry projections from H2 estimate that this year’s tournament will see approximately 169 million wagers placed, leading to a total handle of $2.9 billion. This figure reflects a modest 1.5% decline from last year’s event, marking a shift after several consecutive years of steady growth. The total handle is the sum of all wagers placed on an event.
Why is there a possible decline in bets this year? In 2025, no new states have introduced online sports betting since the previous March Madness. In 2024, North Carolina had its market launch just prior to the annual tournament, which frequently features several schools from the Tar Heel State.
The surge in betting activity during the 2024 tournament was also fueled in part by the “Caitlin Clark effect” as the star player’s popularity drew increased attention to the women’s tournament.
It’s important to note that these estimates exclude wagers placed through prediction markets or sweepstakes contests, both of which could divert betting volume away from regulated sportsbooks.
Historically, March Madness produces lower hold rates for sportsbooks compared to professional leagues.
A key reason for this trend is the smaller percentage of wagers placed on same-game parlays, given that individual college players are generally less recognizable than their professional counterparts. In addition, a handful of states prohibit parlays on college athletes.
Player-specific prop bets on college hoops tend to see lower engagement. This impact was evident in Vermont last year, where sportsbooks reported a March Madness hold rate of just 1.14%, significantly lower than the overall annual sports betting hold rate of 11.03%.
Most sports betting operators hope to see a hold rate above 7-8%, and a rate in excess of 10% is excellent.
Using statistical models, H2 forecasts that the average hold rate for this year’s tournament will reach 7.8%, slightly improving from last year’s estimate of 7.5%.
Factoring in the projected betting handle would translate to $223 million in gross gambling revenue, a $7 million increase from the prior year. This rise is primarily driven by improved hold margins, which help offset the slight dip in total betting volume.
Operators are hoping for a rebound following a challenging NFL regular season, which saw historically low hold margins. However, 2025 has shown early promise, thanks in large part to a favorable Super Bowl outcome for sportsbooks, with many of the most popular player prop bets failing to cash for bettors.
As for March Madness, the reduced reliance on parlays means that sportsbooks’ profitability will hinge more on game outcomes. To maximize their margins, operators will be rooting for underdog victories, which typically result in higher returns.
