Betting Markets Favor Trump as Winner of the 2024 US Election
According to some betting exchanges, Donald J. Trump is the candidate most likely to win the 2024 United States presidential election, with implied odds at 59 percent. Still,the results can differ from the current predictions.
Donald Trump is a favorite to win as per betting exchanges. © Joshua Woroniecki, Unsplash
What Do Betting Predictions and Polls Say?
In an analysis by the Telegraph (UK), a popular betting exchange lists former president Donald J. Trump as the most likely candidate to emerge victorious in the US election, which will be completed on Nov. 5.
His opponent is current vice-president Kamala Harris. As the Telegraph points out, odds can be greatly impacted by the money wagered on either side of the bet. In 2020 and 2016, many polls and some betting exchanges had US Presidential election results wrong, especially in so-called key battleground states.
National polls, such as the one from Five Thirty-Eight from ABC News, have the race between Harris and Trump within the two-point margin of error, with the VP with a slim lead. CNN’s “Poll of Polls,” which averages five election polls, shows Harris ahead of Trump, 49-47. However, CNN points out that that close of a margin indicates “there is no clear leader in the race.”
Trump was elected in 2016 with a stunning result countering almost every election poll and expert prediction. Trump became the first person elected US President who had not previously either held public office or been a general in the military. 2024 marks the third consecutive race in which Trump is the candidate of the Republican party. He joins former president Richard Nixon as the only other person to be a candidate for president three times for the GOP.
Harris’ Lead in Betting Markets Has Disappeared
According to Betfair, Harris held the lead following her replacement of incumbent President Joseph Biden as the Democratic party candidate in early August. The Dems lined up behind Harris following a disappointing performance by Biden in a debate with Trump in July.
Harris’s entry into the presidential race initially saw the VP vault into a leading position. But Trump has erased that advantage. However, betting exchange odds do not necessarily indicate how an electorate plans to vote.
If a betting exchange has received a flood of wagers on Harris to win the 2024 election, that could be a reason why the odds have flipped to show Trump as likely to emerge victorious since a betting exchange, by definition, is seeking to attract bets on both sides of an event. If there is a large amount of money on Harris, that could prompt a betting exchange to shift odds.
A key state in the election is Pennsylvania, which Biden won in 2020 but Trump secured in 2016. According to research by the Telegraph, Betfair says Trump has a 53 percent likelihood of winning that state.
