The UK’s Novelty Betting Sites Need a Break From TV Specials

by Roy Brindley, 22 December 2023

English goalkeeper Mary Earps has won the BBC Sports Personality of the Year Award. The World Cup Golden Glove winner justified her 1/7 odds ahead of cricketer Stuart Broad and Katarina Johnson-Thompson. Unlike those above her, Johnson-Thompson did win a major event in 2023. She reclaimed her Heptathlon title at the World Athletics Championships.

Playing every minute at the World Cup, Mary Earps won the competition’s Golden Glove award for three clean sheets. She only conceded four goals across the tournament, where England finished as the runner-up. ©GettyImages

Swimmer Anita Lonsbrough became the first female Sports Personality of the Year award winner in 1962, eight years after the accolade was launched in 1954. Since then, male athletes have dominated proceedings – collecting the award 54 times.

However, the tide is turning. Earps became the fifteenth female recipient of the prize and the third in succession, following tennis star Emma Raducanu in 2021 and another footballer, Beth Mead, in 2022. Online bookmakers had all three priced odds on from the moment nominations were made public.

It Has Been a Favorite Fest

Sports Personality of the Year 2023 was the concluding television novelty/specials betting event of a busy six-week period. The first was the revamped Big Brother. Yinrun Huang was the bookies favorite for much of the 36-episode show. But the eventual winner, Jordan Sangha, became the punters’ favorite in the home straight and was 2/5 on the final night.

There was another winning favorite in I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here. Sam Thompson and Josie Gibson were short-priced from the outset. Boxer Tony Bellew briefly took the mantle of favorite – as short as even-money – with a week remaining. But Thompson was the market principle for the bulk of the journey (and the final five days).

The moment we crowned your King of the Jungle 2023… #ImACeleb pic.twitter.com/M4FyUQzMeJ

— I’m A Celebrity… (@imacelebrity) December 10, 2023

The former Made in Chelsea star won the final poll with 56.64 percent of the vote compared to Bellew’s 43.36 percent. In an earlier three-way poll, Nigel Farage was eliminated in third place with 25.78 percent of the votes cast.

Do Not Strictly Interpret the Judges’ Scores

Strictly Come Dancing completed a ‘good thing’ treble when Ellie Leach won the hugely popular BBC show on December 16th. The broadcaster does not release details of public voting numbers on shows of this ilk, but the betting public was acutely aware of the popularity of the Coronation Street star.

Leach became the odds-on favorite six weeks before the show’s scheduled final. Her odds continued to shrink week after week. When three celebrities remained, 22-year-old Ellie Leach and partner Vito Coppola were 1/10 to take the prize.

The odds proved correct, and there is every indication her victory was a landslide. And this fact is eye-opening as, on scores, runner-up Layton Williams was the superior dancer. He had a higher average judges’ score and twice scored a perfect 40. Leach never earned a ‘maximum’ 40 points from the judges.

Only Punters Do Not Love Island

Will this run of winning favorites continue when the next batch of reality-style celebrity-based talent or talentless television shows hit our screens in January? Two such shows are set to infest the UK’s televisual airwaves next month: Love Island All Stars and Dancing on Ice.

Introducing our Pro Skaters for 2024! 😍 #DancingOnIce pic.twitter.com/DSn3TJlBzP

— Dancing on Ice (@dancingonice) October 23, 2023

History suggests Love Island will not be a foregone conclusion. The contest has always been a punters graveyard and a nightmare for in-play betting fans. However, the list of Dancing on Ice’s previous winners conclusively shows the cream always rises to the top.

Dancing On Ice Previous Winners

Five of the past six Dancing On Ice winners were favorites at the start of the competition. If the trend continues, 2024’s competition will be won by Miles Nazaire, the Made in Chelsea star who William Hill and other bookmakers make their market leader.

Love Island winner Amber Davies is in close contention. Most online sports betting sites have the 27-year-old quoted on 4/1. Coronation Street actor Ryan Thomas, S Club 7 singer Hannah Spearritt, and Olympic gold medal-winning Long Jumper Greg Rutherford are others priced under 10/1 odds.

Age Is an Ice Cold Handicap

At the other end of the market, former boxer Ricky Hatton and Brookside/Coronation Street actress Claire Sweeny can be backed on 25/1. BBC Radio 1 presenter Adele Roberts and Eddie ‘The Eagle’ Edwards are others available on double-digit odds.

The odds offered on these four contestants correctly suggest that candidates aged 40-plus are severely handicapped in shows of this type. Indeed, the list of previous winners indicates that younger athletic types – and those with stage school experience – have a distinct advantage.