The U.S. Election Swing States: How Do the Bookies See It?
The 60th US Presidential Election is drawing ever closer. Kamala Harris has held firm in the betting since outscoring Donald Trump in their September 10th televised debate. Her odds of success have hovered around 4/5 and 5/6, meaning she is considered the most likely candidate to win the White House race.
Nationally, the latest polls indicate the Vice President is four points ahead of Donald Trump. However, the November 5th election will be decided in the ‘swing states’, which are the states where candidates of both the Democratic and Republican parties have similar levels of support, and they could fall to either.
Kamala Harris won the first and only TV debate between the two Presidential candidates at the start of September. ©Getty
How Will Cards Fall in Swing States?
This year, 93 electoral votes are up for grabs across seven swing states. As there are 538 electoral votes, a candidate needs the vote of at least 270 electors to win the presidential election. The stakes are high, and betting sites are unsure how the cards – or voting ballots – will fall.
The ‘swing states’ are also known as the ‘battleground states’. This year, they are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Given their importance, Trump and Harris will do most of their campaigning in these states in the coming weeks.
Below, we will look at previous results in these key states, assess the most recent polls and question if there is any value in the latest bookmaker odds.
Arizona. Latest Odds: 4/7 Trump, 6/4 Harris.
Donald Trump and his Republican Party won this state in 2016 with a 48.8 per cent share of the vote to Hilary Clinton’s 44.58 per cent. However, in 2020, Arizona turned blue with Joe Biden ousting Donald Trump by a fraction – 49.36 per cent of the vote compared to Trump’s 49.06 per cent.
The most recent New York Times/Siena College poll (of 713 voters) in Arizona shows that Trump is ahead by 50 per cent to Harris’ 45 per cent. However, the margin of sampling error among likely voters is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, and the August Times/Siena Arizona poll showed Harris to be leading by five percentage points.
Georgia. Latest Odds: 4/7 Trump, 11/8 Harris.
Donald Trump’s Republican Party won this state in 2016. It flipped in 2020 with the Democrats, led by Joe Biden, taking the prize by a mere 11,800 votes. The Republican Party is favourite to regain it, but its odds have drifted in recent weeks.
A survey of 682 people placed Trump 49 to 45 per cent in the latest Times/Siena Georgia poll. This time, the margin of error is sizeable – plus or minus 4.6 percentage points – and the Times has declared “about 15 per cent of the electorate in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina described themselves as ‘undecided or not definitely decided’, leaving open the possibility that they could still change their minds”.
Michigan. Latest Odds: 7/4 Trump, 4/9 Harris.
The Great Lake State is one of three states – along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – that formed a ‘blue wall’ for Biden in 2020. Trump had won all three over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016. Everything suggests this one will go to Harris in 2024. She has led every statewide poll for months.
The latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll of 500 potential voters put her ahead by three points – 48 per cent to 45 per cent. Of those questioned, nearly 93 per cent said their mind is made up, and only five per cent said they might change their minds.
Interestingly, recent survey data indicates that the economy is paramount to Michigan voters. And so, the recent big interest rate cut and a drop in gas prices should work in Harris’ favour in Michigan.
Nevada. Latest Odds: 1/1 Trump, 4/5 Harris.
Nevada prize is worth just six electoral votes, the lowest number of electoral votes among the seven swing states. Hilary Clinton won this state for the Democratic Party in 2016 with a 47.92 per cent share of the vote compared to Donald Trump’s 45.50 per cent.
Interestingly, the gap widened in 2020 when Joe Biden earned 50.06 per cent of the vote (to Trump’s 47.67). It was the fourth consecutive election that had fallen to the Democrats. However, the polls and odds suggest the outcome will be very close this year.
According to the results of the latest public opinion polling data from Noble Predictive Insights, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck-and-neck in both a full ballot and a head-to-head voter intention.
North Carolina. Latest Odds: 4/6 Trump, 11/8 Harris.
Donald Trump won this state for the Republican Party in 2020 by a vote share of 49.93 per cent to 48.59 per cent. It was almost a mirror image of 2016’s vote when Trump won with 49.83 per cent of the vote. The Democrats have not won this state since 2008, but this year, it will be close.
A survey of 682 people placed Trump 49 to 47 per cent ahead in the latest Times/Siena North Carolina poll. The margin of error is said to be minus or plus 4.2 percentage points, which gives Harris hope. She has been closing the gap, and her improvement in polls has seen Trump drift from 4/9 to his current 4/6.
Pennsylvania. Latest Odds: 11/10 Trump, 4/5 Harris.
This is another state that has flipped during the past few elections. Joe Biden won with 50.01 per cent of the vote in 2020, and Trump took the state with 48.84 per cent in 2016. It was a narrow victory as Hilary Clinton had 47.46 per cent of the vote.
Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes is the fifth-most overall and the highest number among swing states. This means the election could be won or lost here, and it is a crucial battleground state. The Hill recently reported that Kamala Harris has a slender lead, with plenty of positives taken from a Monmouth University poll, including her stance on abortion.
Wisconsin. Latest Odds: 13/8 Trump, 4/7 Harris.
Joe Biden won this state for the Democratic Party in 2020 with a 49.45 per cent share of the vote (Trump took 48.82 per cent). The percentage of Biden’s vote was exactly three per cent more than Hilary Clinton received when losing to Trump in 2016.
When 1,431 Wisconsin adults were polled between September 12th and September 17th by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, Harris came out one point ahead. Interestingly, Trump has described the state as “really important”, telling the summer Republican National Convention, “If we win Wisconsin, we win the whole thing”.
What Is the Best U.S. Election Bet?
Harris’s price collapsed after she let Trump hang himself in their televised debate. The former President has not agreed to a second public airing of dirty washing, but a Vice President Debate is scheduled for October 1st. If Kamala Harris’ running mate, Tim Walz, does a similar job on Trump’s No. 2, JD Vance, the Democrats will be sitting pretty.
The economy has been described as “the most important” factor in voting intentions by the bulk of people in all swing state polls. With interest rates and gas prices coming down, the number of voters saying the economy is good has increased. That contentment might be all that is needed for Harris’ Democratic Party to stay in power, and she is the obvious selection at the 4/5 odds offered by the best UK betting sites.
