Is 2022 the Year Japan Finally Wins the l’Arc de Triomphe?
Sunday’s Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe appears the most competitive renewal of the prestigious Group-1 contest in decades. A full complement of 20 runners are set to go to the start of Europe’s richest horse race.
Nearly 60 countries will broadcast this event live. An estimated 35,000 people from all over the world will also pack the Longchamp grandstands and terraces. Millions of euros will be gambled on the race. It is due off at 3.05 pm UK time.
Torquator Tasso: The defending l’Arc de Triomphe champion will face 19 rivals on Sunday including four horses trained in Japan. ©France-Galop
Remarkably the bulk of money bet into the French Pari Mutuel Urbain – the French state-controlled betting system better simply known as the PMU – on the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe will originate from Japan.
The Japanese are crazy about horse racing. Every year, they gamble almost €25 billion on the horses. It places the country well ahead of all others in the world rankings.
Win, Lose or Draw, Japanese Runners Are Good for the PMU
In recent years Japanese horses have shone all over the world. They have won Group-1s in France, the United Kingdom, the United States, Dubai, Hong Kong and Australia. But one contest has eluded the country, and a first victory has become an obsession for the Japanese bloodstock industry. That race is the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Japan’s first attempt at the 2,400-metre contest came in 1969 when Symboli Speed finished tenth behind Ireland’s Lvmoss. Since the late 1990s, Japan has dramatically ramped up its efforts to take the €5 million contest.
17 l’Arc de Triomphes have since featured at least one Japanese runner. On Sunday, the country will have its biggest ever representation with four runners in the field. Should they win, lose, or draw, this is good news for the PMU.
Last year, courtesy of partners in 58 countries, the PMU facilitated €93.3 million of bets during the Qatar Prix l’Arc de Triomphe meeting. €60 million of this figure was gambled on the big race itself. €41.8 million of that came from punters in Japan.
Who Are Japan’s Four Arc Runners? What Are Their Chances?
Do Deuce: This three-year-old colt won the Japanese Derby in late May. He has raced just once since – finishing a disappointing fourth in the Qatar Prix Niel over the Prix l’Arc de Triomphe course and distance.
His trainer, Yasuo Tomomichi, has already had a runner in the Arc. That was Makahiki, who finished fourteenth of 16 starters in 2016. Do Deuce is owned by Masaaki Matsushima, a businessman who made his fortune in the world of luxury cars.
Matsushima bought his first racehorses in 2014 under the advice of his personal friend, jockey Yutaka Take. The 53-year-old rider – an 18-time champion jockey in Japan – will ride Do Deuce on Sunday. He has ridden in the race 10-times before finishing second in 1993 aboard White Muzzle.
33/1 with the UK’s best horse racing betting sites, Do Deuce will almost certainly start at considerably shorter odds with the PMU. If he is to stake a claim on the Arc, he must leave his Qatar Prix Niel form well behind.
The Best Chance of Becoming the Titleholder
Titleholder: A four-year-old, this horse is considered Japan’s best chance of winning the 2022 Arc. He is trained by Toru Kurita, who made a scouting trip to France in August before deciding to place his horse in the Chantilly training center. Titleholder will be his first runner in the Arc.
Winner of the 2021 Japanese St Leger, Titleholder is unbeaten in three starts this season. He has never run outside of Japan and his jockey, Kazuo Yokoyama, only got his first experience of Longchamp a fortnight ago.
Nevertheless, at 9/1, online betting sites have placed this horse – boasting £4.5 million in career earnings – as the fourth name down the l’Arc de Triomphe betting list.
Foolish to Stay Away From Strong Stayer
Stay Foolish: Until the start of 2022, this seven-year-old had raced 28 times and won just once. But Group-3 success on home soil and a Group-2 victory in a Meydan two-mile contest improved his stats and took his lifetime earnings beyond £3.6 million.
Stamina would appear to be his forte. So, should forecast rain land on the Parisian track, the resultant soft or heavy going could play to his strengths. Stay Foolish’s trainer, Yoshito Yahagi, gave Japan its first (and second) Breeders’ Cup victories in 2021. So, he knows what is required to win a major overseas race.
In the saddle will be Frenchman Christophe Lemaire. The Melbourne Cup and Classic winning jockey has been Japanese champion jockey for the past five seasons and could ride Longchamp blindfolded. 80/1, therefore, looks like a very generous price.
Rain Is a Deep Concern
Deep Bond: Impressively won an established Arc prep-race – the Qatar Prix Foy – over course and distance last year. He later lined up in the big race as a 23/1 shot but clearly disliked the heavy ground and he trailed in last.
Yuga Kawada is in the saddle on Deep Bond. The jockey has some European racing experience and finished sixth in the 2014 Arc aboard Harp Star. But this positive is tempered by Sunday’s forecast rain and potentially soft ground.
Interestingly this runner has met and lost to Titleholder in his last two starts – by seven lengths and four lengths. That makes him a potentially interesting each-way play at odds of 80/1. However, it is probably best to hold your bets until race day as deep-ground and Deep Bond is unlikely to prove a profitable combination.
