From 66/1 Kamala Harris Is Now in the US Election Hot Seat
When President Biden took to X to declare he was not standing for re-election, political betting sites went into overdrive. Kamala Harris, the Vice President, was endorsed by Biden, but that did not mean she had the blessing of the Democratic Party. Her nomination had to be approved by party members.
Will Josh Shapiro become the Democratic Vice President nominee, giving Harris a strong hand in the battleground state of Pennsylvania? ©Getty
A week before Biden’s announcement, UK betting sites quoted Harris on 8/1 odds to become the next US President. On the eve of Biden’s announcement, she had halved in price to 4/1. The following day, the odds were halved again. On her current trajectory, Harris’s price will be halved again in the coming days, making the 59-year-old favourite to win the November 5th election.
From 66/1 Harris Is Now Approaching Odds-on
As potential rivals to Harris did anything other than throw their hats into the ring, and endorsement after endorsement flooded in, a daily price shift became the norm for Harris in the election betting. A landmark day was July 26th when 6/4 odds became 11/8 following the endorsement of former President Obama and his wife, Michelle.
Earlier this week, Michelle and I called our friend @KamalaHarris. We told her we think she’ll make a fantastic President of the United States, and that she has our full support. At this critical moment for our country, we’re going to do everything we can to make sure she wins in… pic.twitter.com/0UIS0doIbA
— Barack Obama (@BarackObama) July 26, 2024
For much of the past year, the former First Lady had been a popular choice with punters who drove her price down to a 6/1 low in early February. Remarkably, at the same time, Harris could be backed on ‘double-carpet’ odds of 66/1. Concurrently, Donald Trump went odds-on to regain his old job.
In the eyes of bookmakers, Trump’s re-election had begun to look inevitable. The 78-year-old’s conviction on 34 felony counts at the end of May served him well. Remarkably, overnight, his odds shortened from 5/6 to 8/11. In the aftermath of the July 13th assassination attempt, 8/15 odds became 4/11.
Short Odds on Democrats’ Popular Vote Win
The current market sees Trump available at a top price of 5/6, and Harris can be backed at 11/10. Optimists can back Trump’s running-mate, J.D. Vance, on 100/1, the same price as Independent Robert Kennedy Jr. Michelle Obama is now 150/1. A crystal ball is required to be tempted by these propositions.
Election betting sites have odds available on many US Election outcomes. The winner of the ‘popular vote’ – which party receive the most votes nationwide – is another market that has been in flux. Democratic nominees Hillary Clinton (2016) and Al Gore (2000) lost the US election despite winning the popular vote.
The Democratic Party briefly went even-money in the popular vote stakes following the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. Currently, three months before the election, Kamala Harris’s party is considered 77 per cent likely (3/10 odds) to gain the most votes nationwide.
Sharp Money Is on Shapiro in VP Stakes
Another short-priced proposition is for Josh Shapiro to become the Democratic Vice President nominee. A decision on Harris’s running mate is required before the Democratic National Convention, which starts on August 19th in Chicago. Analysts believe the potential number two will be confirmed long before then.
The charismatic Shapiro is the Governor of Pennsylvania – a must-win State for the Democrats – where he enjoys a high approval rating. Two other governors – Tim Walz of Minnesota (8/1) and Andy Beshear of Kentucky (4/1) – are reportedly “under serious consideration”, but, at 4/11 odds, it would be a shock if 51-year-old Jewish Shapiro was not appointed as Harris’s number two.
