Hamilton Set to Regain Formula 1 Championship Lead in Sochi
The nail-biting 2021 Formula 1 season rolls into Russia this weekend. Staged at a relatively new circuit that circles the Olympic Park that was used for the Sochi Winter Games of 2014, Sochi Autodrome joined the Formula 1 calendar later that same year.
In essence, Sochi is a street circuit with plenty of slow corners and a few fast sections. However, the track’s surface is largely devoid of the bumps, gradient, or camber that make true street courses challenging. Furthermore, it is remarkably kind on tires.
Will the Mercedes team dominate on the Sochi’s street circuit once again this weekend? ©LATImages/MercedesF1
Sochi Has Been Magical for Mercedes
Sadly this race often delivers a tragically boring spectacle. Cars can get well strung out and once the race settles overtaking is rare. The Mercedes team has ruled supreme at the circuit. Amazingly no car other than a Mercedes has won here. Lewis Hamilton has taken the race four times in the past, Valtteri Bottas twice.
Unsurprisingly, given the statistics, Lewis Hamilton is the bookies’ clear favorite to score on Sunday. Ladbrokes is offering an industry-best price 8/11. Mercedes number two driver Valtteri Bottas can be backed at 4/1 to end his sequence of 21 consecutive defeats. His last victory came at this venue a year ago. On that occasion Hamilton’s car suffered from a small collision which affected his aerodynamical downforce and pace.
Mercedes’ team principal Toto Wolff has already delivered a pragmatic outlook on race ahead and the remainder of the season by stating:
“Our aim is to pull together a strong weekend, starting in FP1 and building one session at a time. Lewis is in the tenth championship battle of his F1 career, and he is laser focused on what he needs to deliver in the next eight races. As for Valtteri, he’s driving better than ever, like we saw in Monza – and he will be flat out every weekend. There’s a calm determination about the team right now and the business end of a season, fighting for championships, is exactly what we enjoy the most.”– Toto Wolff, Team Principal, Mercedes F1.
Can Strategy Save Handicapped Max?
Despite leading the Drivers’ World Championship points standings and claiming pole position in seven of the last eight Grand Prix, Max Verstappen is considered a 6/1 shot – top priced at William Hill – to win on Sunday.
Red Bull has developed a very different and much-improved car in 2021 so it may surprise in Sochi. However, with Max Verstappen being handed a three-place grid penalty for causing a collision with Lewis Hamilton at Monza last time, a race victory is unlikely. At a different venue, a good strategy call could negate a three-place penalty.
To armchair viewers, the timing of a pit-stop often appears straightforward. However, unseen by television viewers there is a vast amount of data and analysis involved in making the call to “box, box, box!”
Analytically Planning a Pitstop
Formula 1 teams typically work several races ahead on their strategies, making sure baseline preparations are made well in advance. They use every available piece of data to build a detailed picture of all possible scenarios and their implications on the race.
As each race weekend is completed, systems are updated to re-analyze what to expect from forthcoming circuits. Every race weekend brings a huge amount of understanding of where a team is weak and where they are strong and, vitally, how they can improve.
Ahead of the following race weekend, the strategy team will have a host of data and information at their disposal. They will investigate weather patterns and assess the data from the last time they raced at the circuit. Tire performance is the most important of all the variables.
Sochi Autodrome has an abundance of 90-degree right-hand corners, but it is still relatively kind on tires. ©MercedesF1
Why Are Practice Sessions Vital?
During Friday practice sessions, the key focus is on tire performance and how long the rubber will last before a first or second pitstop is needed. By the end of the second practice session the aim is to know what downforce set-up is required and have a qualifying plan. Undoubtedly the most important decision is the tire compound cars and drivers want to start the race with. This needs to be decided before the third practice session.
The emphasis on the third practice session is to build on the existing data set and focus on low fuel running. Qualifying plans will be decided at this point as will the decision on which tire compound to use during each of the three qualifying stages.
Additionally, decisions will be made on the time of garage exits, to utilize a teammate to create a tow (slipstream) or not, fuel loads, lap counts, and other fundamentals. They also need a contingency for track evolution and events outside of their control such as unexpected rain or red flags.
Teams only have a finite number of tires at their disposal, so the run plans and which tires to fit for each run are a massively crucial strategic decision. Everything done in the first qualifying session impacts the following two sessions. Using resources correctly will see a car start as high up the order as possible. It is a tough balancing act and all of this before you ask the driver to perform at 100 percent.
Pedal and Money Down
Given all these factors, what looks like the best betting investment during the weekend? With the World Drivers’ Championship finally balanced and Mercedes expected to have a speed advantage Valtteri Bottas topping the timesheets in the first practice session looks a good bet.
The team may send the Finn out on a data-mining exercise with all his engine settings turned up to the max. It would make sense for him to make the fastest low fuel load runs while title-chasing teammate Lewis Hamilton meanders around the track at a slower pace not jeopardizing his engine and preserving tire life.
With Toto Wolff’s telling statement, “Our aim is to pull together a strong weekend, starting in FP1,” Bwin’s 9/4 about Valtteri Bottas taking his fourth practice one ‘victory’ of 2021 certainly looks good value.
