Going Low on the Monza Margin Is Sunday’s Best F1 Bet
This Sunday, the 16th race of a bumper 24-race Formula 1 season will get underway at Italy’s fabled Monza circuit. Despite Mercedes drivers winning three of the past five races, the pendulum has swung firmly towards the McLaren team. Its star driver, Lando Norris, won last weekend’s Dutch Grand Prix by a yawning 23 seconds.
These are troubled times for the once-invincible Red Bull team. Max Verstappen may have scored seven times in 2024, but he has been winless since the Spanish Grand Prix in June, and his last five starts have yielded just two podium finishes. Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez has failed to finish better than sixth in nine successive starts.
Pisa’s Tower is not the only building that leans in Italy! Monza’s recent history suggests you should lean towards a narrow-margin winner this Sunday. ©MercedesF1/Etherington
Drivers spend around 76 per cent of a Monza lap using full throttle. The emphasis on straight-line speed means teams run their cars in a low downforce configuration to reduce drag and maximize speeds on its long straights. Understandably, the Italian circuit is called the ‘Temple of Speed’. Which cars and teams is this set-up likely to favour?
Will Monza Deliver a Triple-Digit Winner?
Theoretically, limited cornering and the ample overtaking opportunities the Monza straights offer should make this an easy contest for punters to unravel. Results from the Belgian Grand Prix – staged at the similarly fast Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps – usually work as a reliable stencil for this contest.
However, this year, drivers representing four individual constructors filled the first four places in that contest. It was raced in fine conditions. Confusing the picture further, the Italian Grand Prix has proven calamitous more than once since 2020. This was the year Pierre Gasly defied 150/1 odds to register his maiden F1 race victory.
On this occasion, two safety car interruptions worked in the Frenchman’s favour. Twelve months later, a race-ending and season defining collision between Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton saw Daniel Riccardo deliver his McLaren team its first race victory in nine years. He, too, could have been backed at treble-digit odds at the outset of the race weekend.
Italian Grand Prix stats and results from the past two decades.
Tempted by 18/1 Mercedes Pair
Our comprehensive results guide (above) shows the Italian Grand Prix is no longer as predictable as it once was. The last six years have gone against the established grain in several areas. Most notably, safety car intervention, winning margins and the failure of pole setters to convert their advantage into a race victory.
Lando Norris is trading as the even-money favourite ahead of this weekend’s action. Max Verstappen follows on 11/4. The best Formula 1 betting sites then quote Oscar Piastri on 7/1, followed by Charles Lecler on 12/1. They then offer 18/1 on either of the Mercedes duo, George Russell and Lewis Hamilton.
The German team has landed three of the past five races, including the form-pointing Belgian Grand Prix. And while they were a major disappointment last weekend in Holland, Hamilton and Russel make each-way appeal as Monza is a very different type of racetrack.
Hot to Stop Once or Twice
Formula 1 gamblers always keep an eager eye on weather forecasts. Changeable conditions can throw a sizeable spanner into calculations and deliver teams with the best tyre-changing strategies – and a slice of opportunism or good fortune – an unexpected result. This weekend, only sunny skies are forecast.
However, intense sun means intense heat and the ambient air temperature is forecast to be over 30 degrees on race day. With Monza recently being resurfaced, its new darker asphalt will retain more heat than ever. Track temperatures are expected to breach the 50-degree barrier. When a track’s surface is scorching, it can cause the tyres to overheat and wear out much faster.
Traditionally, tyre wear has been low at this venue and taking a single pitstop for a tyre change has been the best strategy. Of 2023’s 20 starters, 14 drivers pitted just once, while six pitted twice. One of those two-stoppers was Oscar Piastri, and his second tyre change was due to contact with Lewis Hamilton.
Five From Six for Narrow Margins Please
A greater proportion of drivers are predicted to take a second pitstop in 2024 despite the excursion taking 24 seconds to complete. Ultimately, the destination of the Italian Grand Prix’s winner’s trophy could depend solely on pitstop strategy. Furthermore, mid-pack teams may employ a maverick approach, which could see them attain results far better or worse than usual.
Over the past five years, so much unpredictability and confusing results have led our experts to one conclusion: The best betting opportunity on Sunday’s race comes in the winning margin market. Six of the last seven F1 contests have been won by less than four seconds. Holland was the exception – albeit the heavily banked old-school Zandvoort Circuit resembles a go-cart track.
Formula 1 betting sites quote an Italian Grand Prix winning margin of under five seconds on even-money odds. If the proposition comes good, the sequence of relatively narrow-margin Italian Grand Prix winners will become five-from-six and extend to 10-from-16.
