Australian Grand Prix Features a Brilliant Bet Opportunity
Formula 1 betting expert Roy Brindley has cast his eye over the Australian Grand Prix and come up with a 6/4 bet selection.
Alex Albon was one of the drivers that hit Albert Park’s walls during last year’s F1 weekend. © Getty Images
Key Facts:
- Betting on the year’s opening F1 race has been traditionally been fraught with danger.
- Formula 1 has a bumper crop of rookies in 2025.
- Sweltering 36 degrees is forecast for qualifying, but rain is expected on race day.
- With no extra point as a prize, will the fastest lap market throw out a big-priced winner?
Formula 1’s 2025 roadshow will make its first stop in Melbourne, Australia, this weekend. Drivers representing three individual teams occupy the top three places in the early race betting. McLaren’s Lando Norris is the 7/4 favourite.
Traditionally, betting on the year’s opening race has been fraught with danger. The first public outing of the season habitually meant several retirements – a whopping ten in 2010, seven in 2017 and nine in 2014 – as new spec cars were put into combat for the first time – and they often failed.
However, 2025’s cars are mechanically unchanged from last season and entering their fourth year. Many of those predicting fewer than 17.5 race finishers – an outcome online gambling sites quote on 6/4 – will rely on newcomers to make understandable mistakes.
Six Rookies and Hot Stuff Melbourne
Formula 1 will have a bumper crop of rookies in 2025. There are three race debutants: Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes), Gabriel Bortoleto (Sauber) and Isack Hadjar (Racing Bulls). Oliver Bearman (Haas), Jack Doohan (Alpine) and Liam Lawson (Red Bull) have some previous F1 race experience but will be starting their first full season.
The prospect of these newcomers tripping over one another makes the 6/4 on 17 or fewer race finishers a tempting proposition. When weather conditions and historical stats are put into the equation, the temptation becomes an urge that must be acted on.
Friday and Saturday’s practice sessions (and qualifying) are all set to take place in dry conditions. Temperatures on Saturday will rise to a sweltering 36 degrees. However, weather forecasters believe there is an 80% chance of rain during Sunday’s much cooler race.
Tyre Wear, Safety Cars and Pitstops
Hot weather contributes to high tyre degradation. It is noteworthy that teams are limited to the number of tyre types and number of tyres they can use during a race weekend across all practice sessions, qualifying and the race.
Unexpected safety car interruptions during the race will contribute to more than optimal pitstops and tyre changes. These can also lead to out-of-sync pitstops, meaning not all cars will have the optimum race tyres fitted at the right time – if they have not used up their quota in the first place!
Why can we declare the likelihood of safety car intervention or impromptu hand-forced pitstops is high? Firstly, one of those eager and over-enthusiastic rookies may make a mistake so severe their race car ends up stranded on the track.
Secondly, it is not light rain that is predicted for the race, but heavy showers. Nothing like heavy rainfall is a better catalyst for a high-speed appointment with a wall lining a racetrack. Melbourne’s Albert Park has lots of walls.
Australian Grand Prix Fastest Lap Setters and Finishing Numbers
Year -Fastest Lap Driver (Team) – Classified Finishers
- 2014 – Nico Rosberg (Mercedes) – 13
- 2015 – Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes) – 11
- 2016 – Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull) – 16
- 2017 – Kimi Räikkönen (Ferrari) – 13
- 2018 – Daniel Ricciardo (Red Bull) – 15
- 2019 – Valtteri Bottas (Mercedes) – 17
- 2020 – No race (COVID-19 cancellation) – N/A
- 2021 – No race (COVID-19 cancellation) – N/A
- 2022 – Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) – 17
- 2023 – Sergio Pérez (Red Bull) – 17
- 2024 – Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) – 17
It has been over a decade since this race produced 18 or more classified finishers, so history shouts out that the ‘under 17.5’ bet is a shoo-in. From a value perspective, this could prove to be the best F1 value bet of the 2025 season.
Planets to Line Up for Fastest Lap Setter
Of course, there are numerous bet options available for the race. We are also drawn to the’ fastest lap’ betting market for all of the reasons outlined above – not least the potential of rain and an incident-packed contest.
This season, the extra point awarded to the driver clocking the day’s fastest time has been scrapped. With the distinction no longer bringing a reward, teams and drivers will care little about who claims it.
There are too many imponderables related to this market to make a confident selection. Fastest laps are typically set when cars are carrying a light fuel load – towards the end of the race – have fresh tyres fitted, and are in clean air on a rubbered-in track. That is a lot of planets that need to lineup!
Our suggestion is to back a handful of drivers (non-rookies) at the wheel of cars expected to finish in the mid-pack at huge prices. Alex Albon, Carlos Sainz, Pierre Gasly and Yuki Tsunoda are all available on 100/1 odds and could provide armchair viewers with some cheap entertainment with the prospect of a nice win for small stakes.
Weekend Schedule – How to Watch the Australian Grand Prix
Sky Sports’ dedicated F1 channel will broadcast the weekend’s Formula 1 action, starting with the Drivers Press Conference on Thursday. The full timetable of events is listed below (stated times are UK/GMT).
Thursday March 13
2.30 am: Drivers’ Press Conference
Friday March 14
1.30 am: Australian GP Practice One
3.40 am: Team Principals’ Press Conference
5.00 am: Australian GP Practice Two
Saturday March 15
1.30am: Australian GP Practice Three
5am: Australian GP Qualifying
Sunday March 16
4am: The Australian GP
Sky Sports owns the exclusive rights to the Formula 1 in the UK. This year it kicked off its live coverage with a successful London launch event in mid-February.
