Why Red Bull Needs to Throw Everything at F1 Title Races
The 2024 Formula 1 season has entered its home stretch. For so long, its outcome looked like a foregone conclusion. Seven wins and a second from the opening ten races saw Max Verstappen trading on 1/20 odds to win his fourth successive World Drivers’ Championship. A nine-race losing sequence has followed, and British fans are now optimistic that Lando Norris can claim the title.
The best sports betting sites quote Lando Norris, a three-time winner during the 2024 season, on 3/1 odds in their World Drivers’ Championship betting. Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc has a remote chance and is priced accordingly on 50/1. However, Max Verstappen is considered the most likely winner and is top-priced 2/9 to retain the championship lead he adopted after the season’s opening race.
Will Liam Lawson be drafted-in to help Max Verstappen and the Red Bull team before the season’s end? Perez looks on borrowed time. ©RedBull
Can Norris upset the formbook? His McLaren team are leading the World Constructors’ Championship standings, and with a competent teammate, Oscar Piastri, acting as his wingman, the 24-year-old has plenty of positives. Here, you can view the latest standings and see what is required for Norris to take the prize.
Current F1 World Drivers’ Championship Points Standings
Theoretically, five drivers can still win the World Drivers’ Championship. They are Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc for Ferrari, Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris for McLaren and Max Verstappen, who has outscored his out-of-contention teammate, Sergio Perez, by a ratio of more than two-to-one this season (and last).
| Driver | Team | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 354 |
| Lando Norris | McLaren | 297 |
| Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 275 |
| Oscar Piastri | McLaren | 247 |
| Carlos Sainz | Ferrari | 215 |
| Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 177 |
| George Russell | Mercedes | 167 |
| Sergio Perez | Red Bull | 150 |
| Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 62 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | Haas | 29 |
Standard ‘Sunday races’ offer 25 points for a win, plus an extra point for the fastest lap (if the driver finishes in the top 10), giving any driver a potential 26 points per race weekend. However, points go down to tenth place, with 18 points for the second, 15 for the third, 12 for the fourth and 10 for the fifth. Each sprint race offers eight points for the winner down to one point for eighth place.
| Remaining Races | |
|---|---|
| Mexico | October 27 |
| Brazil | November 2* |
| Brazil | November 3 |
| Las Vegas | November 23 |
| Qatar | November 30* |
| Qatar | December 1 |
| Abu Dhabi | December 8 |
| *Sprint Race | |
What Does Norris Need to Happen?
If Lando Norris can win all remaining races and sprints plus claim all five fastest lap awards, he would win 146 points, taking his end-of-year points tally to 443. As it stands, the Englishman needs to recoup 57 points before the end of the season to surpass Max Verstappen; it is an average of 11.4 points per race weekend.
However, should Lando Norris win everything available to him while Max Verstappen finishes second on every occasion, he would still fall short in the title table with a total points haul of 443 compared to 458.
Unquestionably, Norris needs to win several races to have any realistic chance. He probably also needs Verstappen to encounter a degree of misfortune. One or two out-of-the-points finishes for the reigning champion would make things extremely interesting. However, with Verstappen failing to finish in the top 10 of just three of his last 73 races, this is a case of straw-clutching.
Can a Red Bull Switch Rescue the Constructors Title?
Despite Max Verstappen’s handsome lead in the championship, his Red Bull team lags 40 points behind McLaren in the Constructors’ Championship. It is just eight points ahead of third-placed Ferrari and quoted on 16/1 by the UK’s online bookmakers to return to the top of the standings.
Charles Leclerc sets his sights on delivering Ferrari’s first constructors’ title since 2008 after 1-2 in Austin 🏆#F1 #USGP pic.twitter.com/0WeW59mFJf
— Formula 1 (@F1) October 21, 2024
Red Bull’s Achilles heel has been its second driver, Sergio Perez. The Mexican has gone 14 consecutive races without a visit to the podium – finishing seventh or worse a dozen times. Concurrently, Verstappen won three races and stood on the podium on an additional five occasions.
It has to be questioned if Red Bull team boss Christian Horner and the team’s senior advisor, Helmut Marko, will cry “enough” and replace the 277-race veteran before the season’s end. Marko recently replaced Daniel Ricciardo with Liam Lawson in Red Bull’s sister team and received an instant reward.
Lawson finished ninth in last weekend’s US Grand Prix, just two places behind Perez, in a performance that more than matched anything Ricciardo had achieved during 2024. A similar result in Mexico this weekend – where Perez will have immeasurable support from his home fans – might be enough to see yet another trademark driver-switch at the Milton Keynes-based team.
