Classy Illinois Is the One to Beat in the Classic St Leger
Not too big and not too small seems to be the answer to Saturday’s St Leger Stakes. The question is, what price will the winner of the season’s final classic start? Six of the previous ten Leger favourites were beaten. Nevertheless, the average starting price of recent winners is relatively low. Will 2024’s contest be another for the punters?
Aidan O’Brien has an outstanding chance of claiming the race for the eighth time. The Irish trainer saddles three of the seven-runner field. Using the odds offered by big-race sponsors, Betfred, the likelihood of one of the so-called Ballydoyle Maestro’s trio winning the £421,355 contest is less than 2/5.
Illinois showed tenacity when landing the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. Back up to one-mile-six-furlongs, he is the obvious choice in the final 2024 classic. ©Getty
Will the Group-1 contest produce an outstanding winner who could go on to stake a claim on the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe? Join us as we preview the 2024 edition of the one-mile six-furlong classic, and other ITV Racing televised races taking place on Doncaster’s valuable Saturday card.
An Impressive St Leger Winner Is Needed
The St Leger remains one of the biggest races on flat racing’s calendar. A Triple Crown winner would boost the profile of the contest further and, as much of the gloss has been dulled from the contest since Nijinski landed all three Triple Crown legs in 1970, it is much-needed
However, it will not happen in 2024, as 2000 Guineas winner Notable Speech skipped the Derby and has never raced beyond a mile. City Of Troy, winner of the Epsom classic but well beaten in the 2000 Guineas, is headed to the west coast of America for the Breeders Cup.
The best fans can hope for is an impressive St Leger winner that goes on to become a ‘Cup horse’ and/or contest the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe beforehand. In 2021, Hurricane Lane won the Doncaster contest and three weeks later made the trip to Paris for Europe’s biggest race. He finished third, beaten just three parts of a length.
The Top Three in the Leger Betting
Illinois (Aidan O’Brien). Form: 13-32122. Price 7/4
Illinois ground out victory in the Queen’s Vase when he was stepped up to 14 furlongs at Royal Ascot and then finished second in the Grand Prix de Paris. He was then beaten by a stablemate and fellow St Leger entry Los Angeles when he was last seen in action in York’s Group-2 Great Voltigeur. With that rival re-routed to the Irish Champion Stakes, this son of Galileo is officially the highest-rated runner in the race.
Aidan O’Brien is on the board! Illinois wins the Queen’s Vase at Royal @Ascot! pic.twitter.com/Dq9cKOJ88O
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) June 19, 2024
Jan Brueghel (Aidan O’Brien). Form: 111. Price 7/2
Unraced at two but unbeaten in three starts, posting some impressive figures means Jan Brueghel has to be taken very seriously. His most recent success came in Goodwood’s Gordon Stakes, which was traditionally an excellent St Leger trial. He steps up in trip now, but from a dam that has produced stayers, 14 furlongs should be with his compass.
Grosvenor Square (Aidan O’Brien). Form: 1-3721. Price 5/1
Beaten ten lengths in Chester’s Derby Trial (the Chester Vase) and the same by a similar margin in the Irish Derby (beating just one horse home) meant this contender looked relatively ordinary. However, the step up to the St Leger trip and some trail-blazing tactics have seen him almost steal a Group-2 at The Curragh and land the Irish St Leger Trial Stakes by 20 lengths (at 1/2 odds).
His presence in the St Leger field means the race could become a tactical game of cat-and-mouse – with rival jockeys unwilling and unlikely to give him a healthy early advantage. Therein, Grosvenor Square rates as a fascinating contender and one the UK’s online gambling sites are understandably keeping on their side.
Recent St Leger Winners
| Year | Horse | SP | Trainer | Jockey |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Continuous | 3/1 | Aidan O’Brien | Ryan Moore |
| 2022 | Eldar Eldarov | 9/2 | Roger Varian | David Egan |
| 2021 | Hurricane Lane | 8/11 | Charlie Appleby | William Buick |
| 2020 | Galileo Chrome | 4/1 | Joseph O’Brien | Tom Marquand |
| 2019 | Logician | 5/6 | John Gosden | Frankie Dettori |
| 2018 | Kew Gardens | 3/1 | Aidan O’Brien | Ryan Moore |
| 2017 | Capri | 3/1 | Aidan O’Brien | Ryan Moore |
| 2016 | Harbour Law | 22/1 | Laura Mongan | George Baker |
| 2015 | Simple Verse | 8/1 | Ralph Beckett | Andrea Atzeni |
| 2014 | Kingston Hall | 9/4 | Roger Varian | Andrea Atzeni |
| 2013 | Leading Light | 7/2 | Aidan O’Brien | Joseph O’Brien |
Leger Contenders Lower Down the Betting List
You Got To Me (Ralph Beckett). Form: 15-14412. Price 9/2
This Nathaniel filly won the Lingfield Oaks Trial on her seasonal debut and finished fourth in the Oaks itself. Subsequently winning the Irish Oaks and finishing a fine second in the Group-1 all-aged Yorkshire Oaks, connections decided to pay £50,000 to make a late entry into the Leger.
You Got To Me takes the Irish Oaks (G1)!
— IFHA’s Longines World’s Best Racehorse Rankings (@worldsbesthorse) July 20, 2024
Trainer Ralph Beckett has handled a St Leger winner – his Simple Verse won the contest in 2015. It has not been lost on form students that she was the last filly to win the St Leger. Beckett also trained Talent to finish second in the race in 2013 and Look Here to finish third in the 2008 Leger.
Sunway (David Menuisier). Form: 1621-52724. Price 13/2
A Group-1 winner as a juvenile on very soft ground in France, this son of the stamina-laden Gailway has been campaigned at the highest level throughout 2024. His best performance has been a runner-up spot in the Irish Derby. Sunway has never been tried beyond 12 furlongs, but the Leger trip will surely play to his strengths.
Deira Mile (Owen Burrows). Form: 3324-142. Price 20/1
Beaten seven-and-a-half lengths into fourth in the Derby, this lightly-raced sort finished second in a minor small-field contest on his only subsequent start. It was run at a muddling pace, so he should not be judged too severely. Deira Mile would be a popular winner from a small stable, but as his price suggests, he is also an unlikely winner.
Wild Waves (Andrew Balding). Form: 44-51104. Price 66/1
One-mile-and-six-furlongs is no barrier for this three-year-old, who has winning form over the trip and bloodlines that relish stayers trips. But, rated 95, Wild Waves will need the planets to line up to have any realistic chance of getting competitive.
So, Who Will Win the St Leger?
The stats suggest the Leger winner will be positioned towards the head of the betting, and an upset is improbable. Aidan O’Brien has a strong hand in the Betfred St Leger and can manipulate the race complexion to suit his team best. None is fancied more than Illinois, and as he has only run against horses of the highest calibre throughout his career, he looks the obvious winner.
What Are the Best Bets on St Leger Day?
There are six other races on Doncaster’s St Leger card. The action begins at 1.50 pm with the Betfred Champagne Stakes, a Group-2 for two-year-olds. Here, the Richard Spencer-trained Righthere Rightnow is fancied to run a big race. Visually impressive when winning his only outing – at Newmarket, where the opposition is always strong – this youngster comes under the banner ‘could be anything’.
Horse racing betting sites love big-field sprint handicaps as they are nothing short of a cavalry charge and are always a difficult puzzle to unravel. This sentiment goes for the 2.25 pm contest, the Portland Handicap, where our experts suggest the best bet is ‘no bet’.
The 3.00 pm, the Group-2 Betfred Park Stakes, is considered a contest where money could be won, and our selection is Lead Artist. Trained by the Gosden stables, which have had a relatively quiet season by its high standards, this beautifully bred filly – by Dubawi out of a Group-race winning Frankel mare – steps down a furlong after winning a Goodwood Group-3 when showing plenty of pace.
