Short Priced Favourites Galore at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival
With more short-priced favourites in living memory, we ask, will it be boom or bust for favourite backers at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival?
How many short-priced favourites will cross the line ahead during this year’s Cheltenham Festival? © Getty Images
Key Facts:
- Non-runner-no-bet markets on Cheltenham Festival races mean punters can look at races objectively.
- A record number of short-priced runners is expected to line-up at the 2025 meeting.
- Festival odds-on shots have a 54.35 percent strike rate – meaning a loss to level stakes.
- 1/10 odds suggest Ireland will retain the Prestbury Cup.
2025’s Cheltenham Festival is now just weeks away. Few, if any, of the leading lights will be seen in competitive action between now and the curtain-raising contest, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, on March 11th. With non-runner-no-bet markets available on all Festival races, punters can now objectively approach the meeting’s 28 races.
During the past decade, punters have become accustomed to an increasing number of short-priced runners lining up to contest Cheltenham’s non-handicap races. At this stage, online betting sites suggest 2025’s Festival will feature its longest-ever list of runners priced 2/1 or shorter.
The Fate of Cheltenham Favourites
In non-handicap races at all Cheltenham meetings during the past five years, favourites have fared well. There has been a 43% win rate for market principles in hurdle races, and 48 percent of favourites have scored in chase contests.
There were nine winning favourites at the last two Cheltenham Festivals and 12 in 2022. Some started as joint-favourites. Nevertheless, the number of outright betting favourites that have won at recent festivals is: 8-7-11-8-7.
For obvious reasons, favourites receive more attention than any other horse in a specific race. While professional punters will have an opinion on their odds representing value, they will generally accept that the most popular horse in the betting industry holds the mantle of ‘favourite’ for a good reason.
Horses Currently Trading 2/1 or Shorter at Cheltenham 2025
Tuesday, March 11
- Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle: Kopek Des Bordes, 10/11
- My Pension Expert Arkle Novices’ Chase: Majborough, 4/7
- Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle: Brighterdaysahead (1/2 to 10/11), Lossiemouth (5/4 to 11/4)
- Unibet Champion Hurdle: Constitution Hill, 4/7
Wednesday, March 12
- Turners Novices’ Hurdle: Final Demand, 7/4
- Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase: Ballyburn, 7/4
- Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase: Stumptown, 2/1
- Queen Mother Champion Steeple Chase: Jonbon, 5/6
Thursday, March 13
- Ryanair Steeple Chase: Fact To File, 6/4
- Stayers’ Hurdle: Teahupoo, 5/6
Friday, March 14
- JCB Triumph Hurdle: Lulamba, 7/4
- Mares’ Chase: Dinoblue, 2/1
- Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup: Galopin Des Champs, 2/5
Two 2025 Festival races have the potential to produce a memorable buckle. The Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle has two outstanding entries in Brighterdaysahead (prices vary between 1/2 and 10/11) and Lossiemouth (5/4 to 11/4).
Both have an alternative entry in the Champion Hurdle. Should the Mares race feature just one of these two stars – as one takes up its engagement in the hurdle showpiece – they are sure to start as a prohibitively short-priced favourite.
Lulamba, the current 7/4 JCB Triumph Hurdle favourite, does not hold an alternative engagement. Nevertheless, he does have a potentially strong rival in the shape of East India Dock, which is top-priced at 9/4. The pair are unbeaten in five starts over hurdles.
🟡⚫️ LULAMBA looks very, very good.
🔥 Triumph Hurdle winner in waiting? @sevenbarrows has some squad for Cheltenham this season!pic.twitter.com/O8cQuBCtel
— Road To Cheltenham (@RoadCheltenham) January 18, 2025
A Winning Cheltenham Percentage but Losing Bet
Thirteen of the Festival’s races currently feature a favourite priced 2/1 or shorter. In the final analysis, the history books will likely show seven odds-on shots competed at Cheltenham 2025. That was the case in 2024 when five justified their odds by winning.
2020 was a particularly bad year for odds-on players, with just one winner from six. During the past decade, 25 of the 46 horses that started as odds-on favourite won. A 54.35% strike rate still represents a loss to level stakes.
Mullins, JP and Ireland – The Odds-On Specials
An odds-on shot that rarely fails to deliver at Cheltenham is Willie Mullins collecting the leading trainer accolade. The most successful trainer in Festival history, with 103 winners to his credit, visited Cheltenham’s winner’s enclosure a remarkable ten times during 2022’s meeting.
UK gambling sites quote Mullins, the Festival’s leading trainer ten times since 2011, on 1/6 odds to win the award for a sixth consecutive year in 2025. The Irish trainer’s stable jockey, Paul Townend, is 1/3 to claim the ‘top jockey’ accolade for a fourth time in five years.
The odds-on favourites continue in other Cheltenham Festival specials markets. JP McManus is 1/5 to be the week’s leading owner. Odds of 1/10 suggest Ireland will retain the Prestbury Cup – awarded to the country with the most Festival winners – for a ninth successive year.
