As a Formula 1 Fan All’s Good With Albert Park
It may be one of the most popular tracks with Formula 1 fans, but Melbourne’s picturesque Albert Park Circuit is not a favorite amongst teams and their drivers. Not as extreme as Monaco, Singapore, or Hungary, the Australian street circuit presents a difficult challenge as it features very few legitimate overtaking spots.
George Russell improved on Mercedes’ already excellent Australian Grad Prix record with a third-placed finish last year. ©JiriKrenek/MercedesF1
Last season, officials added a fourth DRS zone (drag reduction system) to the track but, due to safety concerns, it was removed following Friday practice sessions. Interestingly, situated between Turns 9 and 10 along the lakeside straight, the ‘go faster’ zone is back in 2023.
It is expected to see cars reach 211 miles per hour and will enable better overtaking opportunities approaching the newly redesigned Turn 11. But it could also serve to produce incidents, and they are not something unfamiliar to Albert Park.
Can the Bulls Be Bullish?
A safety car has been required ten times during the past 13 races staged at this venue. Last year it was called into action twice. In total, during those past 13 races, the safety car has spent 58 laps on the track. It is a distance that is identical to Sunday’s race.
The safety car has not blighted Mercedes’ performance. At this race ten years ago, Lewis Hamilton made his debut for the team. The German manufacturer has won four of the eight subsequent editions, and last year George Russell took his first podium finish on his third outing for the team.
Red Bull’s fortunes have not been so good in Australia. The team has won this race just once – in 2011 courtesy of Sebastian Vettel. For a team that was dominant between 2010 and 2013 and again in 2022 (plus successful in half of 2021’s races), the lack of race victories is hard to believe.
We Can Count on Safety Cars
Nevertheless, the 2023 Red Bull looks invincible, and snapshot stats from different generations of race cars probably count for very little. Max Verstappen is the 2/5 betting favorite to win this weekend. Verstappen beating Red Bull teammate, Sergio Perez, is only an 11/10 proposition as a 1-2 forecast bet.
Like most street circuits, the likelihood of a safety car appearance at Albert Park is high. ©MercedesF1
Better value surely lies among the safety car markets found at the best sports betting sites. Most online betting sites and their odds compilers rate the probability of a safety car being summoned as a 2/7 shot. The odds are fair, albeit unattractive. Alternatively, the 7/4 available on two or more individual safety car appearances may be considered generous.
The line on classified race finishers at the last Grand Prix was set at 15.5 (5/6 odds of more or less), but 18 cars completed the race distance. This weekend the line is set at 17.5. It looks like an overreaction and, in the belief one or two safety cars will be called into play because of terminal mechanical failures, accidents, or incidents, going low makes sense.
Top Bets for Sunday’s Australian Grand Prix
- Two or more safety car periods 7/4
- Under 17.5 classified finishers 5/6
