Will the Golden Globe Form Stand Up at the 2025 Oscars?
Golden Globe results traditionally translate to Oscar awards. So, will 2025 be a sweep for The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez?
Will Golden Globe winners Brady Corbet and Adrien Brody double-up at the Oscars? © Getty Images
Key Facts:
- ‘The Brutalist’ and ‘Emilia Pérez’ took the significant awards at the Golden Globes
- Formbook suggests Golden Globe winners will fare well at the Oscars
- Industry authority websites describe dark-horse, ‘Conclave’, as a “directors movie”
- Best Actress Oscar category could be more open than the betting suggests
The 97th Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, March 2, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood. Twenty million Americans, plus audiences in over 200 territories around the globe, are expected to watch the famous Oscars award ceremony.
Official nominations for the 97th Academy Awards will be revealed on Friday, January 17. There are 23 categories in total. Just days into 2025, the best form pointer of all, the Golden Globe awards, saw ‘The Brutalist’ and ‘Emilia Pérez’ take the most gongs among the film nominees.
‘Emilia Pérez’ won four Golden Globes from its leading ten nominations. ‘The Brutalist’ gained three awards from its seven nominations. These two movies now head the betting markets in most categories where bookmakers have introduced 2025 Oscars odds. However, punters are in a quandary.
Best Picture Globe Winner to Double Up?
Since 2001, A Beautiful Mind, Chicago (2002), The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003), Slumdog Millionaire (2008), The Artist (2011), Argo (2012), 12 Years a Slave (2013), Moonlight (2016), Greenbook (2018), Nomadland (2020), The Power Of The Dog (2022) and Oppenheimer (2024) have all won the Best Picture Globe and then doubled up in the Oscar’s Best Picture category.
Overall, the Oscars’ Best Picture winner has also been the Golden Globes ‘Best Picture’ winner 51 of 81 times. That is an impressive 62% strike rate. However, consider how the Golden Globes work before heading to the best online betting sites to support a profitable trend.
Unlike the Academy Awards, the Golden Globes has four ‘Best Motion Picture’ awards: Drama, Musical or Comedy, Animated and Non-English Language. The Drama award is usually the most fruitful source of Oscar Best Picture winners, with a 40 from 81 record.
No Globe, But Conclave Has Authority Fans
‘The Brutalist’ took the Drama prize at the Globes, but ‘Emilia Pérez’ won both the Musical or Comedy and Animated categories. It sets up a fascinating contest where experts cannot dismiss two other excellent movies, ‘Conclave’ and ‘Anora’.
Despite a poor showing at the Golden Globes, odds compilers give this pair a combined 40 percent chance of winning. Awards Daily, a website primarily focused on the film industry and the film awards seasons, may have had some influence on the calculations. It describes Conclave as a “director’s movie” and predicts Academy Award voters will favour it.
Den of Geek, another film authority website, states Conclave has “the narrative to triumph with Academy voters. A straight down-the-middle political thriller with the tantalizing wrinkle of being set during the highly secretive (and highly fictionalized) election of a new Pope.”
What Are the Latest Oscars Best Picture Odds?
- The Brutalist – 4/6
- Emilia Pérez – 5/2
- Conclave – 4/1
- Anora – 4/1
- Sing Sing – 12/1
- The Nickel Boys – 16/1
- Dune: Part Two – 16/1
There are three other major awards: Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Director. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) tops the betting in the former category on 4/6 odds. The 51-year-old landed the ‘Best Performance in a Motion Picture – Drama’ at the Golden Globes and already has a Best Actor Oscar for his role in 2002’s The Pianist.
On 10/11 and 6/5 odds, Mikey Madison (Anora) and Demi Moore (The Substance) are vying for favouritism in the Best Actress Oscar category. Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) 4/1, Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) 7/1, and Karla Sofia Gascon (Emilia Pérez) 8/1 follow.
Will Best Director and Picture Double Up Again?
The most clear-cut of all Oscar betting markets is that on the Best Director category. The odds compilers at the William Hill sportsbook department quote Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) on an industry-best price of 1/4. The odds are understandable, with Corbet already collecting the Silver Lion at the Venice Film Festival and Best Director at the Golden Globes.
History shows that the movie that earned the Best Director accolade has also claimed the Best Picture Oscar 71 percent of the time. The two awards have aligned four times in the past five years. Another standout stat is the Golden Globes’ Best Actor – Drama winner has doubled up at the Oscars in ten of the last 12 years.
Actress Award to Provide an Upset?
Maybe the Best Movie, Actor and Director awards are too obvious, lacking in value – or both! The 10/11 and 6/5 odds about the principles (Mikey Madison and Demi Moore) in the Best Actress betting market suggest this market is a two-runner lockout.
However, their success at the Golden Globes – in the Drama and Musical or Comedy categories – is far from certain to translate into Oscar glory. Historically, the Globe/Oscar conversion rate for actresses is well shy of that enjoyed by male counterparts.
Additionally, Angelina Jolie (Maria) and Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) were favoured to win the Best Actress – Drama Golden Globe. To further cloud the picture, reliable Academy Awards prediction sites appear convinced Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) will be the one Academy Award voters will be most enamoured with.
