Forget the Votes: How We Might Already Know the Eurovision 2025 Winner
Key Takeaways:
- Estonia’s Tommy Cash leads searches in 29 countries, surpassing pre-show interest of recent ultra-popular winners
- Pre-contest search data has successfully predicted 3 of 4 recent Eurovision winners
- Eurovision’s biggest cities show universal support for Estonia’s entry
- Traditional voting alliances weakening as Mediterranean nations favor Baltic entry
Think you know who’s going to win Basel’s Eurovision 2025? Before you place your bets, take a peek at what millions of fans are searching for online. It turns out that Eurovision enthusiasts might be better at predicting winners than you’d expect: and they’re doing it weeks before anyone steps on stage.
The British View
Estonia’s “Espresso Macchiato” leads searches in nine of the UK’s largest cities, including London, Birmingham, and Edinburgh, while Latvia makes a surprising showing as the most-searched entry in six urban areas including Manchester and Cardiff. Sweden’s entry rounds out the top three, dominating searches in Leeds, Glasgow, and Liverpool.
British Eurovision fans have shown an uncanny ability to spot winners before the contest. In 2023, Loreen’s “Tattoo” dominated searches across 15 UK cities before claiming Sweden’s historic victory. The pattern repeated in 2024, with Switzerland’s Nemo leading searches in major metropolitan areas like London, Manchester, and Edinburgh before their eventual win.
The UK’s pre-show preferences haven’t always aligned perfectly with Eurovision outcomes. In 2022, while Spain’s “SloMo” captured British attention and topped searches in nearly every major UK city, Ukraine’s Kalush Orchestra ultimately claimed victory.
The Fans Know Best
When Italy’s Måneskin rocked their way to victory in 2021 with “Zitti e Buoni,” fans were already onto something big. Search data showed people across Europe couldn’t get enough of the Italian rockers before the contest even began. The same thing happened in 2022 when Eurovision fans were busy searching for Ukraine’s Kalush Orchestra and their song “Stefania” long before they claimed their historic win.
A Eurovision Crystal Ball?
Here’s where things get really interesting. Looking at what songs people are searching for outside of each artist’s home country, Estonia’s Tommy Cash is the clear favorite for 2025. With its 9.5M YouTube views, “Espresso Macchiato” isn’t just popular, it’s the most searched Eurovision song in 29 different countries. That’s even more impressive than the search numbers Loreen pulled before she made history with her second win in 2023.
What makes this extra special? Estonia’s song is getting love from places that usually don’t give Baltic countries many points. Even Mediterranean countries, who have historically favored their southern neighbors, can’t seem to get enough of Tommy Cash.
While Estonia dominates the overall picture, other countries are finding their audiences. Finland’s entry is making waves in Estonia and Sweden, while Italy’s song leads searches in San Marino.
A City Perspective
But wait, there’s more. Zooming in on the 25 largest cities in participating countries, the pattern gets even clearer.
From London to Berlin, Madrid to Stockholm, urban Eurovision fans are showing remarkably similar tastes. Each of the 25 cities are universally searching for “Espresso Macchiato”. And if recent history is any guide, these city dwellers might be onto something, as they’ve been surprisingly good at spotting winners before the show.
Numbers Don’t Lie
Let’s talk track record. In the past four years, if you’d bet on one of the top most-searched song before the contest, you’d have picked the winner three times. Who wouldn’t love those odds? Last year, Switzerland’s Nemo topped the search charts before taking home the trophy, proving that Eurovision fans might have a sixth sense for spotting winners. The same happened in 2023 when Loreen’s Tattoo brought glory home to Sweden.
The Digital Eurovision Age
Social media and streaming have changed the game. Songs can now go viral across Europe before anyone sets foot on the Eurovision stage. Estonia’s entry this year is a perfect example, making waves across TikTok, Instagram, and Spotify, driving searches from Lisbon to Tallinn.
So, Who’s Going to Win?
Based on the numbers, Estonia’s Tommy Cash is in a pretty sweet spot for Eurovision 2025. The search data shows the kind of broad European appeal that recent winners have enjoyed. If “Espresso Macchiato” keeps generating this much buzz, we might be heading to Tallinn in 2026.
Of course, anything can happen at Eurovision, and that’s part of what makes it so much fun. But one thing’s clear: those millions of searches tell a story. While the juries and televoters will have their say in Basel, Eurovision fans across Europe are already making their voices heard through their search bars.
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Methodology
Data was collected using Google Keyword Planner in April 2025, measuring search volume for Eurovision 2025 songs across all participating nations and major European cities. To identify genuine international appeal, we excluded searches from each song’s home country. For example, when measuring the popularity of Estonia’s “Espresso Macchiato,” we didn’t count searches from Estonia itself.
