Race Is on for Christmas No.1 – Wham Tops the Betting
The race for Christmas No. 1 is on. Wham’s Last Christmas is the favourite but are the bookmakers being charitable?
Can Wham’s “Last Christmas” become the Christmas No.1? © Getty Images
Key Facts:
- Was Last Christmas Wham’s last visit to the top of the Christmas charts?
- Yorkshire Pudding Boy looks to have the best charity song in the Christmas 2024 race.
- Tom Greenan is the big market mover as his song reaches a provisional No. 2.
- All I Want For Christmas is making its 30th attempt to top the UK Christmas chart.
Released on December 3, 1984, it took Wham’s Last Christmas 36 years to reach the top of the UK charts. Another three years passed before the song claimed the coveted Christmas No.1. Nevertheless, UK betting sites believe the tune will hit the top spot for a second Christmas next week.
Last Christmas is the odds-on favourite to top the 2024 Christmas music chart – a one-week race to achieve the greatest number of sales, downloads and streams between December 13 and 20 – in a betting market dominated by tracks found on most mid-1990s Christmas party compilation albums.
Ah, Lads, Where’s the Song?
Before Wham’s classic song found the top spot in 2023 – as a 5/1 shot when the betting opened – the Christmas No. 1 race had been dominated by YouTube stars LadBaby, who rattled off five consecutive Christmas No. 1’s from 2018.
Their songs – novelty tunes that were parody covers of classics such as Starship’s 1985 single We Built This City and Journey’s Don’t Stop Believin’ – raised money for food bank charity the Trussell Trust. LadBaby has not recorded a song in 2024.
Charity at Christmas Is a Winner
Many will be unaware that, on its release, Wham donated all of their Last Christmas royalties to relief efforts for the Ethiopian famine. Profits from the song are thought to be £300,000 a year, but they still go to charity.
A charity angle is a proven vote winner in terms of the race for Christmas No. 1. In 2024, the absence of LadBaby means All I Am by Aaron Paley (AKA Yorkshire Pudding Boy) should be considered.
Paley is a 13-year-old boy from Southend became an international sensation for wearing a Halloween outfit made from about 350 Yorkshire puddings. Proceeds from his song will benefit the National Autism Society and NSPCC. Similarly, Indie band Reverend and the Makers have recorded a song to benefit the Samaritans. The song, Late Night Phone Call, and its story has gained some traction and featured in the British red-top media.
How Do Bookmakers Bet on the 2024 Christmas No. 1?
There is a big difference between the market leaders, Wham on 1/2 (mathematically 66.7% likely to win), Aaron Paley on 16/1 (5.9%), and Reverend and the Makers on 25/1 odds (less than 4%). Heading into the final week, here are the best odds available about the leading contenders:
- 1/2 – Wham
- 10/1 – Tom Greenan
- 14/1 – Mariah Carey
- 16/1 – Band Aid
- 16/1 – Aaron Paley
- 25/1 – Liam Payne
- 25/1 – Ed Sheeran
- 25/1 – Reverend and the Makers
- 40/1 – East 17
- 40/1 – One Direction
- 50/1 – Taylor Swift
- 50/1 – McFly
- 50/1 – Chris Simmons
In recent days, Tom Greenan has been the biggest mover in the Christmas No. 1 betting. His song, an Amazon exclusive called It Can’t Be Christmas, sat 25 in the most recent chart. Its previous positions were 83 and 49.
However, on December 8, the Official Chart’s ‘First Look’ indicated it was the second most popular song of the ongoing week. Mariah Carey’s All I Want For Christmas Is You was one place above the Greenan song, with Wham one below.
Carey May Not Get What She Wants
Carey’s All I Want For Christmas Is You was released in 1994 but never hit the top spot in the UK charts until 2020. The song has never been a Christmas No. 1 and has only spent two weeks as the UK’s most popular song of the week.
A recent BBC Two’ Mariah Meets Rylan’ interview plus the release of new CD, 12″ and 7″ vinyl variants to mark the song’s 30th anniversary can only count in favour of her chances of being top dog on December 20.
Band Aid can never be dismissed at Christmas. Its charity song, the ultimate charity song, is 40 years old in 2024. The tune currently making the rounds is a new version of “Do They Know It’s Christmas?”. It mixes original song recordings with the Band Aid 20 and Band Aid 30 versions.
Band Aid 40 was released at the end of November and has charted 79, 45 and most recently, 8. However, the Official Chart: First Look currently has it listed as 11th. It should be noted that Band Aid 30 spent just one week at the top of the charts – that highlight coming in November 2014.
