How to Calculate the Poker ‘Outs’ Odds in Texas Hold ’em
While played with just two hole cards, Texas Hold’em is a wonderfully complex poker variant. It requires a gamut of skills. One of the most important is the ability to calculate the probability of ultimately holding the winning hand. Albeit, to win a pot in Texas Hold’em, the best hand is not always required!
When the flop comes down, it is good to know the odds of your potential outs arriving. © WPT
Four rounds of betting, when opponents can be forced out of the hand, means Hold’em is not a game for the faint-hearted. Confidence is required, especially when showing aggression while making big moves. To that end, a firm grasp of probability is one of the biggest weapons players can have in their armoury.
In Texas Hold’em ‘Outs’ Are Your Odds
To understand the probability of your ‘drawing hand’ becoming a ‘made hand’, players need to consider their poker ‘outs’. The term ‘out’ refers to a card that will dramatically improve your hand. A prime example is four random cards of the same suit. If a fifth card of the matching suit arrives, you will hold a very strong hand, a flush. If it does not, your hand is probably worthless.
At every juncture, an ‘out’ arrival is probable. For example, if you are holding 10c, Jc and the flop comes 2d, Ks, Ah, four ‘outs’ will give you a straight – namely, any of the four remaining Queens. Understanding the odds of one of those cards arriving is vital to a successful online poker strategy.
In a more complex example, you may hold Kd, 10d, and the flop comes in 10s, 7d, and 2d. Here, any diamond will give you a ‘flush’, and any 10 will give you the ‘top set’, which will also be a tough nut to crack. With nine Diamonds left in the deck plus a 10c and 10h, in this scenario, you could consider you have eleven’ outs’ – or even 14 if you believe a King will make your ‘two pairs’ hand the best.
Why Is Calculating the Hold ’em Odds of Outs Important?
Each ‘out’ has a mathematical chance of arriving. Your job as a Hold’em player is to consider the cost of a call (or decision to raise or pass) in relation to potential profitability.
But, at what point are you favourite to win a pot by holding the best hand? Or what is the likelihood of winning a specific hand where the reward is greater than the odds of it happening? A case in point is an Ace-high flush draw.
With a flush draw featuring nine outs, you have a 35% chance of making the flush on either the turn or river (circa 15/8 odds). There is a 19.1% chance (circa 9/2 odds) of making your flush on the turn. If the turn misses, you have a 19.6% chance (circa 4/1 odds) of hitting the flush on the river. Overall, counting your outs in poker is of crucial importance.
The Simple Way to Convert Outs Into Odds
Similar to calculating when to draw cards or double down in blackjack, there are a lot of figures and decimal points involved with exact poker ‘outs’ probability calculations. However, there is a simple way to determine the chances of your hand finding one of the cards it needs.
Our rule-of-thumb guide (below) can help novice and experienced players. It is an easy but essential formula split into simple stages to help you learn to play poker successfully.
- With two cards to come (turn and river) – each ‘out’ has an approximate 4% chance of arriving. This is true for the first ten ‘outs’, and each one after that equates to an additional 3% apiece. Therein, for example, any of 13 outs has an approximate 49% chance of appearing.
- With just one card to come (the river)- each and every ‘out’ boasts an approximate 2.2% chance of arriving for a successful poker play.
To Summarise
One of your eleven ‘outs’ – looking back to our Kd, 10d situation – has about a 43% chance of arriving when there are two cards to come and, with one card to come, just 24.2%. Of course, a big bet may be enough to see your opponent(s) pass, and therein, you will win the pot without needing to find one of your ‘outs’.
The ‘big bet’ is one of the heart-racing thrills of poker. It is a lot easier to make when you know your hand has a healthy chance of becoming substantially stronger – albeit when you make your big bet, possibly an ‘all-in’ manoeuvre, your hand may feature only a mid-range high-card.
