Dreaming Of a White Christmas? So Are the Bookmakers!
The Met Office is predicting a cold snap, and in its long-range forecast, the organisation has mentioned the word ‘snow’. It can only mean one thing: the UK’s online bookmakers are about to release a plethora of attention-grabbing press releases announcing their odds on a white Christmas.
It is easy to predict Scotland’s cities will have a sprinkling of snow on Christmas Day. © Peter Summers, Getty Images
Newspapers running frenzied “bookmakers have slashed the odds on a white Christmas” headline stories will doubtlessly follow. Nevertheless, betting on a White Christmas is more than a gimmick, and form students have discovered the odds on offer regularly present a realistic opportunity to profit from the outcome.
White Christmas Is Not Widespread
At first glance, a White Christmas represents a bad bet. To quote the Met Office: “The last widespread white Christmas in the UK was in 2010. It was extremely unusual as not only was there snow on the ground at 83 per cent of [UK] weather stations but snow or sleet also fell at 19 per cent of stations.”
Christmas is only at the beginning of the period when it will likely snow. The Met Office says: “We are more likely to see snow in January and February than in December, with snow settling on the ground (snow lying) an average of 3 days in December, compared to 3.3 days in January, 3.4 days in February and 1.9 days in March.”
There has only been a widespread settling of snow (where more than 40 per cent of stations in the UK reported snow on the ground at 9 am) four times since 1960: 1981, 1995, 2009 and 2010. And so, the Dickensian scene of widespread snow carpeting the ground on Christmas Day is improbable.
However, that is where the bad news for those who back a white Christmas scenario ends. The Met Office defines a white Christmas as “one snowflake to be observed falling in the 24 hours of December 25th somewhere in the UK.”
One Snowflake on One Airport Is a Winner
“Traditionally, we used to use a single location in the country to define a white Christmas, which was the Met Office building in London. However, with the increase in betting on where we will see a white Christmas, the number of locations has increased,” says the United Kingdom’s National Weather and Climate Service.
History suggests that the best UK betting sites will introduce white Christmas betting markets on eight of the UK’s 13 major airports plus key locations in many cities, such as Buckingham Palace and the Millenium Stadium in Cardiff.
Not only has the number of locations you can bet on increased, but the “one snowflake” rule applies to all of them. That’s right, one flake of snow at 3.30 am and Christmas Day will be declared ‘a white Christmas’. Rain with a two-degree ground-level temperature should suffice. Snow does not need to reach the ground!
Forecasting Snow for Christmas 2024
The Met Office says it can accurately forecast if snow is likely on any given Christmas Day up to five days beforehand. Eagle-eyed odds compilers will have their fingers on the pulse at this stage. Long-range forecasts are far less accurate but can be a helpful guide for punters.
Since 1960, around half of the years have seen at least five per cent of the Met Office’s 250-plus weather stations record snow falling on Christmas Day. Technically, we can probably expect more than half of all Christmas Days to be white Christmases in some way.
In recent years, 11 per cent of the UK’s weather stations recorded snow falling on Christmas Day in 2023. The figure was nine per cent in 2022 and six per cent in both 2021 and 2020. No snowfall was recorded at any UK weather station in 2018 or 2019.
What Is the Best Bet for Christmas Day Snow?
Algorithms, prediction models and suggestions for a potential La Niña weather pattern – which brings colder-than-average temperatures to the Northern Hemisphere – can only cloud form students’ logical thought processes. By definition, ‘form’ is a compilation of previous happenings that can be used to predict the future.
Unsurprisingly, history shows that, in the United Kingdom, the most likely place to see snowfall on Christmas Day is in North and Northeastern Scotland, Aberdeen, and the Scottish Highlands. In 2023, there was light Christmas Day snowfall above Braemar, Aberdeenshire. On the same day, the UK recorded its highest daily minimum temperature for a Christmas Day!
Unless exceptional odds are offered, punters should concentrate on the markets that involve snow on Scottish cities and airports. Our research indicates snow – significant enough to be recognised by the Met Office – has fallen on Edinburgh on Christmas Day 23% of the time during the past 50 years.
Therein, 4/1 odds on the outcome – which might be ‘slashed’ by the time press releases hit the newsstands – will represent a fair bet. Online bookies have offered those odds about Edinburgh Airport experiencing snow on the big day before, so prepare for take-off!
